September 7, 2024
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by Chris Impey, The Conversation
Space is an unnatural environment for humans. We can’t survive unprotected in a pure vacuum for more than two minutes. Getting to space involves being strapped to a barely contained chemical explosion.
Since its inception in 1961, fewer than 700 individuals have traversed the bounds of space. Emerging private entities like SpaceX and Blue Origin are working towards significantly increasing those numbers, with SpaceX already accepting reservations for orbital trips.
As an astronomer who has extensively covered the topic of space travel and authored a book on human futures beyond Earth, I frequently contemplate both the hazards and benefits of space exploration.
With the ascent of the commercial space sector, accidents will inevitably occur, leading to loss of lives. Polaris Dawn, a mission slated for an early September 2024 launch involving entirely civilian astronauts, embodies significant risk. This moment invites an imperative evaluation of the risks versus rewards of venturing into space.
Many Americans can precisely recollect the tragedies that claimed the lives of 14 astronauts. Two out of the five space shuttles were destroyed, with Challenger facing catastrophe shortly after its launch in 1986, and Columbia during re-entry in 2003.
In total, 30 astronauts and cosmonauts have died while training for or during space missions.
There have also been dozens of close calls. Two astronauts are currently staying on the International Space Station for an extra six months because NASA declared their Boeing Starliner vehicle unsafe for the return journey. The Starliner has faced multiple issues during its development, including the use of flammable tape, stuck valves, and inadequate parachute systems. However, it was a critical thruster malfunction that led NASA to deem it unsuitable as a return vehicle.
It’s not always safe on the ground, either. In addition to the three Apollo 1 astronauts who died in a 1967 launch pad fire, about 120 people perished in the launchpad explosion of an unmanned rocket in Russia in 1960, and hundreds were killed in 1996 when a Chinese rocket veered off course and crashed into a nearby village.
The fatality rate of people traveling in space is about 3%. Although that may sound low, it is higher than extreme sports such as BASE jumping or wingsuit flying off a cliff. The only activities that pose a comparable risk to space travel are solo free-climbing and climbing above 19,685 feet (6,000 meters) in the Himalayas.
The 2020s have initiated the era of civilian astronauts. Following the tragic incident involving schoolteacher Christa McAuliffe in the Challenger disaster, NASA discontinued sending civilians into space. However, for private space firms, including civilians is part of their operational strategy.
The inaugural fully civilian crew to orbit was aboard a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft in 2021, known as the Inspiration 4 mission. Since 2020, 69 private individuals have traveled to space, with 46 of them surpassing the Kármán line—officially recognized as the boundary of space.
Although the commercial space sector’s safety record is not entirely flawless, no civilian has perished in space. However, a tragic accident occurred in 2014 during a Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo test flight resulting in one pilot’s death and severe injury to another. This event succeeded three fatalities and three injured in a 2007 explosion during prelaunch testing for the SpaceShipTwo rocket.
SpaceX, recognized as the largest commercial space enterprise with 13,000 employees and valued at US$180 billion, has maintained a record of no in-flight deaths. Nevertheless, there has been one fatality and multiple injuries reported in their workplace conditions.
The Polaris Dawn mission was set for August 27, 2024, but has been postponed due to a helium leak and poor weather conditions. It aims to increase the stakes for civilian presence in space. The SpaceX flight is expected to reach 435 miles (700 kilometers) above Earth, a height not achieved by astronauts since the Apollo missions.
The four-person civilian crew of Polaris Dawn will be exposed to significant levels of radiation, equivalent to what they would encounter over 20 years on Earth within just a few hours. Research is currently conducted by NASA to assess the health implications of such high radiation levels.
The mission itinerary includes a spacewalk, marking it the first of its kind conducted by non-government astronauts. The spacewalk involves the use of spacesuits that are untested in outer space. Given the lack of an airlock in the utilized SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, the interior of the capsule will be subjected to outer space vacuum, necessitating spacesuit use by all crew members.
Russian cosmonaut Alexei Leonov experienced near-fatal challenges during the first spacewalk in 1965, and subsequent spacewalks have encountered severe issues such as temporary vision loss, near-drowning incidents, and risks of being irretrievably lost in space. The complexity of spacesuits, akin to miniature spacecraft, demands they endure extreme temperature fluctuations and provide critical protection from direct exposure to space; a minor defect could prove deadly.
But while space travel comes with dangers, it also has rewards. Since Polaris Dawn will travel higher than any previous mission that did not go to the moon, the crew will be able to do research on high-radiation environments. They will investigate the effects of spaceflight on the human body and evaluate how future deep-space travelers might diagnose and treat themselves.
A less tangible but potentially profound benefit is the overview effect—many astronauts report a feeling of awe from experiencing the Earth from space.
Space is booming—hopefully just metaphorically and not literally. SpaceX makes money by launching Starlink satellites and ferrying supplies and people to the International Space Station, with estimated revenues of $15 billion this year. Blue Origin sells rocket engines and has contracts with NASA.
Both companies sell rides into space to high-net-worth individuals, but that’s a small fraction of their revenues. Space tourism is not available to the masses yet. Virgin Galactic offers a short, suborbital ride for $450,000, but getting to Earth orbit will cost you $55 million.
The space tourism market was valued at $750 million in 2023 and is forecasted to increase to $5.2 billion over the next ten years. Reusable rockets have made the cost of launching a spacecraft significantly cheaper, reducing to a tenth of the cost compared to back ten years ago.
For space tourism to expand beyond multimillionaires and adrenaline enthusiasts, its safety—both perceived and actual—must be undeniable. Space industry pioneers anticipate that space travel will evolve similarly to aviation, which initially attracted the wealthy and adventurous types.
Since 1930, advancements in technology and safety have reduced fatal aviation accidents per million miles flown by a factor of 3,000. A more realistic goal would be to achieve safety levels in space travel comparable to automobile travel, given that driving is riskier than flying. The annual likelihood of dying in a car crash is about 1 in 5,000, while the odds for a plane crash sit at about 1 in 11 million.
In the United States, regulatory measures for the commercial space industry have been maintained at minimal levels by the government to promote entrepreneurial activity.
Elon Musk’s dreams of millions of passengers and a city on Mars may not become reality. But if the cost of a jaunt to Earth’s orbit comes down to the cost of a high-end cruise, many people could experience the thrill of weightlessness and of seeing the Earth as a beautiful planet from above.
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