Dublin, Ireland – A recent study by climate advocacy group Transport and Environment has raised concerns about the future of air travel and its impact on global carbon emissions. The research indicates that the number of air passengers is expected to more than double by 2050, resulting in a significant increase in fuel demand, which could undermine the aviation industry’s efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.
As aviation industry leaders gather in Dublin for an annual finance conference, the Brussels-based group has urged the European Union to introduce measures to limit the growth of the airline sector. Jo Dardenne, the aviation director for Transport and Environment, stated, "It’s time to come back down to earth and put an end to this addiction to growth."
The report suggests potential strategies to control the rapid expansion of air travel, which could include limiting airport infrastructure development and corporate travel, as well as increasing taxes on the aviation sector. Despite promises from the airline industry to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the report highlights challenges such as supply shortages and high costs associated with SAF, which can be up to five times more expensive than traditional jet fuel.
The study projects that fuel consumption in the aviation sector will rise by 59% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels, driven by the anticipated increase in passenger numbers. Both Airbus and Boeing expect significant growth in aircraft production in the coming years, which could lead to a marked increase in emissions even if more efficient jets and SAF are implemented.
Dardenne emphasized the contradiction between the industry’s growth and its climate goals, stating that at the current pace, the aviation sector would continue to consume approximately two billion barrels of oil annually by 2050. Airbus and Boeing have yet to comment on the report’s findings.